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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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