Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
