Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
